Recent Publications
Chart Talk: April 24th, 2024
On Tuesday,the Department of Labor (DOL) finalized anew fiduciary rule, “The Retirement Security Rule” which aims “to protect the millions of workers who are saving forretirement diligently and rely on advice from trusted professionals on how toinvest their savings.” We applaud the DOL as quite frequently we meet with indivdiualswho have invested their hard-earned money into products that either levy high internal expense ratios or applyexorbitant charges upon surrender. As an example, some annuities and mutual fundscome to mind. We feel confident in statingthat in our opinion an annuity rarely is in the long-term best interest of theclient. This rule which goes into effectthis coming September 23rd “require trusted investment adviceprovideers to give prudent, loyal, honest advice free from overcharges. These fiduciaries must adhere to highstandards of care and loyalty when they recommend investments and avoid reommendationsthat favor the investment advice providers’ interests – financial or otherwise– at the retirement savers’ expense.”
As is illustrated bythe chart below, only 12% of financial advisors qualifyas fiducaries. Fagan Associates has acted as fiduciaries for wellover two decades which stipulates that we are legally and ethicallyobligated to always put the interest of the clientahead of our own.
As always, somerules we are obliged to include:
· Torender impartial advice.
· Tomake recommendations based on client’s needs.
· Toexercise a high degree of care and diligence.
· Treatclients fairly and equitably.
FaganAssociates works hard to always follow our obligation as a fiduciary. Rest assured that we will use reasonable careand exercise independent professional judgement when conducting financialplanning, investment analysis, making investment recommendations, trading,promoting our services, and engaging in other professional activities. We will always put our best foot forward and sincerelyappreciate the opportunity provided to us with such an important aspect of yourlife.
“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.
Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”
Copyright (c) 2024 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
Chart Talk: April 18th, 2024
On the surface, U.S. economic data looks strong. Total nonfarm payroll employment during March rose by 303,000, significantly above the consensus estimate of 200,000. Total unemployment fell slightly to 3.8% from 3.9% while wages rose 0.3% for the month and by 4.1% over the prior year. However, as can be the case when one takes a closer look, headlines, although important, don’t tell the entire story. Although retail inflation as represented by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen to a “manageable” level of 3.5% y/y, achieving the Fed’s congressionally mandated target of 2.0% could prove a bit more difficult as shelter costs, which account for 42% of the CPI, remain elevated, having risen by 0.4% during March (5.7% y/y), its fourth consecutive monthly 0.4% increase. The labor data also requires a deeper dive. As is illustrated within the chart below, despite the robust overall data regarding the labor market, it is interesting to note that full-time employment declined while part-time employment rose. The number of layoffs also rose.
The above begs the question – what is the next move by the Fed? Given their dual mandate of achieving maximum employment along with price stability, the conflicting economic data has painted them into a tricky situation. Although we are seeing fraying at the edges in the labor market, historically a signal for the Fed to cut rates; we are also seeing inflation remain sticky, an indication that they should keep rates higher for longer. In our opinion, the Fed would be foolish to cut rates until inflation starts to regularly trend below 3%, especially when U.S. inflation remains an issue and the Chinese economy has begun to show signs of life.
“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.
Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”
Copyright (c) 2024 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
Chart Talk: April 10th, 2024
Earlier today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its measure of retail inflation as calculated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of March and to the surprise of many discovered that prices rose by 0.4%, above the consensus estimate of 0.3%. Furthermore, on a year-over-year basis, inflation has risen by 3.4%, up from 3.2% during February. This data calls into question the ease with which the Federal Reserve can get inflation down to its congressionally mandated target of two percent.Inflation remains stubbornly high in regard to shelter costs, which rose 0.4% for the fourth month in the last five and has increased 5.7% y/y. Moreover, shelter costs represents approximately 35% of the overall CPI so that getting this down is a must if the Fed wants to get inflation to two percent.
Within recent Snapshots which we publish weekly on Sunday mornings we repeatedly noted that the Fed’s efforts to get inflation back to two percent, one-half of its congressionally mandated objectives (the other being maximum employment), from its current level of around three percent, aka the ‘last mile’ may take more time and effort than the move to here from its highs during 2022 as some inflation data will most likely remain sticky. At this time, given the above as well as the approaching U.S. Presidential Election, we believe at the earliest any cut in interest rates would occur following the June meeting. Finally in regard to this matter, we believe the Fed may cut and wait rather than provide a series of cuts.
“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.
Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”
Copyright (c) 2024 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.