Financial advisors in Troy NY

Torsten Sløk, the Chief Economist from Apollo Asset Management put out a chart a few weeks back - illustrating that NVIDIA (NVDA) currently has a market capitalization larger than 5 of the countries that comprise the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States). Moreover, Nvidia just eclipsed Apple as the largest company in the world. Amazingly, Nvidia “now has a greater market value than the entire German stock market and the entire Italian stock market,” according to columnist Jason Zweig.NVIDIA’s forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio, a metric to gauge value in a stock is 34.48, which, although a little expensive, is no where near Forward PE Ratio of the Dot Com Bubble Darling, Cisco (CSCO), which had a Forward PE Ratio of 472!

The purpose of this chart and accompanying verbiage is not to debate the current value of Nvidia but to highlight the extent to which the stock has appreciated and to illustrate reference points for emphasis. It is also interesting to note that revenue for the chip giant has risen more than thirty-fold over the past fifteen years. However, we do think we are going through a new technological revolution that is centered around artificial intelligence and NVDA is the backbone of that. Keep in mind that this tailwind is not solely limited to NVDA, but includes technology companies like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Palantir (PLTR), Dell (DELL), Meta Platforms (META), Adobe (ADBE) and Uber (UBER). Outside that sector, importantly, companies that can embrace AI to become more efficient and productive will be the winners and we believe this will not be limited to a specific industry.

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_{“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.}

_{Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”}

_{Copyright (c) 2024 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.}

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When investing in the financial markets, you never know what to expect.  That’s why as portfolio managers, it’s crucial to stay diversified and not be too confident in any investment decision.  As such, the Presidential Election of 2016 comes to mind.  No one would’ve thought over the two months following the election of President Donald Trump, the S&P 500 would’ve been 6.16% higher.  Of course, it is easy now to look back and think Trump’s policies were good for the stock market.  However, on election night, the NASDAQ 100 fell 5% in after-hours trading – only to then reverse course and finish 1.1% higher the following day.  For those on the right gloating, let’s not forget 2020, when the S&P 500 rallied 14% over the next two months following the election of President Joe Biden. Digging down to the performance of various sectors – large-cap U.S. Growth was a star during the Trump Administration, averaging 23.9% per year.  On the flip side, commodities performed the worst, averaging -3.5% (who would've thought).  Ironically, the best performing sector under Biden was commodities averaging 15.2% annually while U.S. Treasuries brought up the rear, averaging -1.9% per year.

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As is illustrated by the chart above – it doesn’t do anyone any favors mixing politics with the stock market. If you only invested in the S&P 500 during Republican Administrations, you would have reaped annual returns of 2.78%. If you only invested in the S&P 500 during Democratic Administrations, you would’ve averaged 5.20% per year. But if you stayed invested fully regardless of which party controlled the Executive Branch, you would have reaped annual returns of 8.13%. History proves that rather than focus on the party, it is financially astute to focus on the policies coming out of the White House and Congress. This change in focus will help you be better able to differentiate the leaders from the laggards.

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_{“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.}

_{Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”}

_{Copyright (c) 2024 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.}

In addition to monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, interest rates on intermediate- and longer-dated U.S. Treasury securities are also affected by the supply coming to the market as well as the demand for existing issuances.  As you can see from the chart below, even though the Fed lowered its target range for the federal funds rate by ½% to between 4¾% to 5% on September 18, the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note has risen from 3.70% to 4.20%.

Why and what does this mean to investors?

If investors believe that the Fed was too aggressive in respect to cutting rates, fearing a rekindling inflation, they will demand a higher yield to compensate for the decrease in inflation-adjusted returns.

Since the Fed’s recent rate cut, the economic data that has been released, including the October Payroll Report, has come in stronger than expected, leading many to believe that perhaps the U.S. Economy, may not be slowing to the extent that would warrant as many cuts as previously anticipated.  Investors would respond to this change in data by pushing rates higher.

Statements made by both Presidential Candidates have heightened concern over the Federal Debt.  Should that concern materialize, it would lead to an additional supply of bonds coming to the market to pay for the debt incurred.  Should demand remain constant, the result would be higher interest rates.  Furthermore, investors may wish to be compensated for the increased risk of investing in a country with an abnormal debt to GDP ratio.

The bottom line – should interest rates continue to trend higher; they will provide a headwind to equity prices.  Regarding fixed income, we will continue to ladder maturities to protect our clients from rates regardless of their direction.

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_{“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.}

_{Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”}

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_{Copyright (c) 2024 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.}

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