According to the Conference Board, as indicated by the charts below, holiday spending both on a nominal as well as an inflation-adjusted basis is expected to rise this year. In our opinion, this is a result of a relatively optimistic consumer, low unemployment, slowing inflation and a strong labor market.

As the blue areas of the charts illustrate, consumers are spending a larger percentage of their holiday budget on “non-gift” or experiences as Americans embrace the “You Only Live Once” (YOLO) attitude.  This would include travel and live entertainment.What does this all mean for the investor?  We believe that at least for the time being it is an affirmation of a relatively healthy consumer, especially those with middle to upper-middle incomes.  As long as the consumer remains strong, we believe this will set a floor in the stock market for the time being.  Although valuations have recently become stretched, a healthy consumer and stable inflation in the 2-3% range will continue to be supportive of the overall stock market.

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_{“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.}

_{Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”}

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As the year winds down, here are some financial planning tips we are doing for clients, but also you can do to help yourself out financially:  

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1. Review Your Financial Goals

• Assess progress toward short-, medium-, and long-term goals (e.g., buying a home, retirement, education savings).

• Adjust your financial plan to reflect changes in income, expenses, or life circumstances.

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2. Tax Planning

• Maximize Contributions: Contribute to tax-advantaged accounts like:

• 401(k)/403(b): Ensure you’ve maximized contributions ($23,000 for 2024, with a $7,500 catch-up for those 50+).

• IRAs: Contribute up to $7,000 ($8,000 if 50+), if eligible.

• Health Savings Account (HSA): Maximize contributions for medical expense tax savings.  For 2024, if you have self-only HDHP coverage, you can contribute up to $4,150. If you have family HDHP cover- age, you can contribute up to $8,300

• Tax-Loss Harvesting: Offset capital gains by selling underperforming investments.

• Charitable Donations: Make tax-deductible donations, including donating appreciated securities.

• Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs): Ensure you’ve taken RMDs from retirement accounts if required (usually starting at age 73).

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3. Investment Review

• Portfolio Rebalancing: Check your asset allocation and rebalance if your portfolio has drifted from your target allocation.

• Evaluate Performance: Review the performance of individual investments and funds.

• Diversification: Ensure your portfolio is diversified to minimize risks.

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4. Estate Planning

• Update your will, trust, or other estate documents as necessary.

• Review and update beneficiaries for insurance policies and retirement accounts.

• Evaluate gifting strategies for estate tax planning.

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_{“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.}

_{Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”}

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There’s No Place Like Home

Given the successful release of the hit movie “Wicked” from Universal Pictures along with the relative rise in the U.S. Equity markets as represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) versus the iShares MSCI ACWI ex-US ETF (ACWX), we thought the above would be an appropriate title for this week’s ChartTalk.

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Although there are several reasons why the U.S. market regularly outperforms global stock indexes, we think that the primary ones include the fact that U.S. companies, powered by their employees, are much more productive and innovative than their foreign counterparts, have pristine balance sheets and operate within a system that is more transparent than most others.

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As is illustrated by the chart below, it is also clear that since late September that divergence has become even more pronounced. Many believe, including us, that the economic agenda put forth by President-Elect Trump, one of deregulation, selective (hopefully) tariffs and the continuing to emphasize onshoring/nearshoring should help the United States maintain its position as the world’s preeminent economy.

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Despite our bullish short-to intermediate-term outlook, investors must recognize that over the past twoyears stocks have come a long way. Inasmuch, such a pullback, when it comes, should be welcomed andnot feared.  That said, over thelong-term we are concerned that Trump’s agenda, as did that of Kamala Harris, doeslittle to reduce our national debt, which at some point will matter a greatdeal to investors.

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_{“This presentation is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. Fagan portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time and are based on a representative portfolio. Holdings and portfolio characteristics of individual client portfolios may differ, sometimes significantly, from those shown. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities listed.}

_{Additional information including management fees and expenses is provided on our Form ADV Part 2. The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested. Bond Investments are affected by interest rate changes and the credit-worthiness of the issues held in the portfolio. A rise in interest rates will cause a decrease in the value of fixed income positions. Past performance results are not indicative of future results.”}

_{Copyright (c) 2024 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.}

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